Index
Strengthen The Health Of Our Immune System
Human flu pandemics, or worldwide outbreaks, occur when a new flu virus emerges and starts spreading easily. Because the virus is new, the human immune system will have no pre-existing immunity. The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic - the deadliest of last century´s three pandemics - killed an estimated 40~50 million people worldwide. The pandemics in 1957 and 1968 seemed mild in comparison, killing an estimated combined total of 3 million people. Experts say that the world is now on the brink of another human flu pandemic.
An Inevitable Human Flu Pandemic
"The signs are clear that it is coming," said Lee Jong-wook, director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO). The deadly H5N1 strain of avian (bird) flu caused the culling of at least 150 million birds in 15 countries in Asia and Europe in the last two years. "It is only a matter of time before an avian flu virus - most likely H5N1 - acquires the ability to be transmitted from human to human, sparking the outbreak of human pandemic influenza," Lee said.
"Once human-to-human transmission has been established, we would have only a matter of weeks to lock down the spread before it spun out of control," said United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan. The last three pandemics encircled the globe in six to nine months. The next pandemic may take less than three months. Scientists determine that between 25 and 35 per cent of the population will be infected in a flu pandemic. The WHO forecasts a maximum death toll of 7.4 million for the next pandemic, based on the mild 1957 pandemic.
This flu pandemic arising from avian influenza is likely to originate in Asia. Nearly all human infections from the deadly virus occurred in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. Slightly more than half died, including two deaths in China newly documented by the WHO. However two recent confirmed bird flu deaths were in Turkey – the first reported deaths from the virus outside China and southeast Asia, sparking fears the disease could spread into mainland Europe.
The bird flu death rate is higher in comparison with SARS, the 1918 pandemic and normal seasonal flu viruses:
| |
Death Rate (proportion of the sick who die) |
| Bird Flu |
50% |
| SARS |
15% |
| 1918 Spanish flu pandemic |
2.6% |
| Normal seasonal flu viruses |
<1% |
Scientists in Hong Kong said they know why the bird flu virus is so deadly in people. The H5N1 virus caused proteins known as cytokines to rush to infected lung tissues, which can be fatal. The study might suggest that if H5N1 does cause a pandemic, it could disproportionately affect the young and healthy. Researchers calculated the median age of those infected: 14 in Thailand and Vietnam and 22 in Cambodia. They also noted that recent infections caused high rates of death among infants and young children.
Besides world health, a human flu pandemic will also have a devastating effect on the world economy. The World Bank put the possible minimal economic cost at a staggering US$800 billion.
There is currently no vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 virus. The WHO advises governments to keep enough antiviral drugs for 25 per cent of their populations. However, the U.S. Government's current stockpile can treat only 2 per cent of the U.S. population. Government and industry officials said that Roche had committed to delivering seven million courses to the U.S. in 2006 and was unable to deliver more until 2007.
A human flu pandemic is not the only thing that threatens to undermine the sanctity of our health. More insidious is the "invisible" epidemic of chronic diseases like heart disease and cancer.
Source: DXN Life , Volumn 25 |
